Q4 2025 is in the books - Where Now?

May will mark the beginning of my 32nd year as an investment advisor. That sounds like a long time... But, I'm still having fun (I've got a 5th grader in the house) and it's the most interesting time to live and invest in my entire career!

 I remember as a child watching a movie titled "It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World". What is indelibly imprinted on my memory is not the characters or story line but rather how I felt while watching - out of control. It was contention and confusion and chaos - OH MY!

 And now - we are living in it...  Whether you are a Trump fan or not we can all agree he's a force of nature and is constantly in the news opining or threatening on the event du jour. This ubiquitous presence is beginning to be unsettling - to the public, business leaders, allies and enemies alike. It's clear his 2nd term will not go "quietly in the night".

 Consequences of this worldwide angst are beginning to manifest in public markets. Prices of precious metals are an excellent proxy for investor unease and foreboding. They made an exciting round trip in the last three months since I last wrote...

 In addition, we have the specter of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and all the change this nascent technology will undoubtedly bring. Last week's software companies' price declines are a symptom of an unknown threat that nameless/faceless AI can do the job better and/or cheaper than companies/coders entrenched for decades. For the first time in my life it's difficult for college graduates in this field to find jobs.

 It's also worth mentioning that there has been a significant shift in market leadership. International developed (Europe and Japan) and emerging markets (China/India/S America) trounced the S&P 500 in the first time in forever in 2025 and domestically small cap value now has better returns than the S&P 500 over the last year. It's been a long time coming...

 What to do? Timing the market is fraught with challenges - but so is buying last decades winners without diversification. I suggest humility - recognition that while we don't now the future we can certainly identify ways to reduce risk by diversifying across asset classes in what should prove to be an exciting and potentially volatile year for markets and portfolios.