What All the Headlines Mean for Your Plan
Oil above $100 a barrel. The national debt past $40 trillion. The 10-year Treasury yield above 5% for the first time since 2002. The Federal Reserve's first rate hike in more than three years, then two members voting for another one in October. If you have followed the news since summer, it would be fair to brace before opening your statement.
Markets have been calmer than the headlines. When the news is this loud, it is natural to wonder whether you should be doing something different. For most families, our answer this fall is no.
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors, Quarterly Market Review, Third Quarter 2026. MSCI All Country World Index (net dividends), index level based at 100 in January 2000. MSCI data © MSCI 2026, all rights reserved. Headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Indices are not available for direct investment and do not reflect the expenses of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Dimensional lines up a year of headlines against the path of global stocks in the chart above. A government shutdown, fighting with Iran and a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs all made the front page, and global stocks still finished the period higher. By the time a story reaches the news, prices have usually already weighed it.
Higher yields raise a fair question about moving money from stocks to bonds. Dimensional looked back to 1927 and found that stocks earned a premium over Treasury bills whether a year started with interest rates high or low. The debt is in the price too: the cost of insuring against a US default has held near the same level for about three years.
The families we work with are investing for decades, often for their children and grandchildren. A plan built for that horizon should not hinge on guessing which headline comes next.
Our recommendation: if your goals have not changed, your plan does not need to either. If they have, call us and we will start there.
Sources
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Quarterly Market Review, Third Quarter 2026, "World Stock Market Performance," with headlines including "US Stocks Fall as Tech Selloff Deepens, Oil Prices Hit $100 a Barrel" (July 23, 2026) and "Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump's Global Tariffs" (February 20, 2026). MSCI ACWI Index (net dividends).
Dimensional Fund Advisors, "Quarterly Review: Cautious Investors Tap the Brakes," October 1, 2026, citing: Federal Reserve, "Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement," September 16, 2026; US Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, September 30, 2026; Alan Rappeport, "US Debt Hits $40 Trillion as America's Borrowing Binge Continues," The New York Times, August 19, 2026; MSCI data as of September 30, 2026; Yuvraj Malik, "Are Emerging Markets Now an AI Trade?" Yahoo! Finance, August 24, 2026.
CNBC, "Fed rate decision October 2026," October 28, 2026: target range held at 3.75% to 4%; Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase; the statement said "Inflation remains elevated." https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html
Dimensional Fund Advisors, "Quarterly Review: Cautious Investors Tap the Brakes," October 1, 2026, Exhibit 1, "Stocks Shrug?" S&P 500 Index returns in excess of one-month US Treasury bills, 1927 to 2025; Ken French data library.
Disclosures
Clayton Johnson is an investment advisor representative registered with Savvy Advisors, Inc. ("Savvy"). All investment advisory services offered by Clayton Johnson are offered through Savvy. Pillar Capital is an independent marketing brand name used by Clayton Johnson for advertising and marketing purposes only. Pillar Capital and Savvy are not related or affiliated. Information presented here is for informational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any product or security. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed here. The illustration was created with AI.
Mike Johnson is an investment advisor representative registered with Savvy Advisors, Inc. (“Savvy”). All investment advisory services offered by Mike Johnson are offered through Savvy. Pillar Capital is an independent marketing brand name used by Mike Johnson for advertising and marketing purposes only. Pillar Capital and Savvy are not related or affiliated.
Charts and data from third parties are used for illustration, and links to third-party websites are provided for reference. Savvy and Pillar Capital do not endorse and are not responsible for third-party content. Mention of any company is not a recommendation to buy or sell its securities. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment, and their returns do not reflect fees or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Historical return data is provided for context only. It does not represent the performance of any actual portfolio and does not guarantee future results. Charts are reproduced from Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Opinions of Dimensional are their own and are subject to change.
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